Special Update from Israel

October 28, 2026

Prepared by and sent from Jewish Federations of North America's Israel Office

Today at 2 p.m. ET: Jewish Federations will host the final webinar in our elections series, "24 Hours After the Results: What Do We Know?" with Israeli political expert Haviv Rettig Gur. Click here to register.

We are sending Jewish Federations’ weekly Israel update a day earlier than usual and including the latest on the country’s not-yet-final election results.

Likud emerges as largest party, and Netanyahu's bloc leads count, but neither side close to a 61-seat majority
Arab parties on course for record representation
Highest turnout since 1999 as Israelis elect 26th Knesset

The Results So Far

With most ballot boxes counted, initial Central Elections Committee results give Prime Minister Netanyahu's bloc 54 seats, seven short of a majority. The Eisenkot-led opposition bloc has 49 seats and the Arab parties 18. The results are not complete and may change as counting continues. Here are the most current predictions by party reflecting total Knesset seats:

Pro-Netanyahu bloc: 54
Likud (Netanyahu): 27
Shas (Sefardi ultra-Orthodox): 7
United Torah Judaism (Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox): 7
Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir): 7
Religious Zionism-Zehut (Smotrich): 6

Change bloc: 49
Yashar (Eisenkot): 21
B'Yachad (Bennett-Lapid): 11
Yisrael Beytenu (Liberman): 8
The Democrats (Yair Golan): 8

Arab parties bloc: 18
Joint List: 12
Ra'am (Abbas): 6

Total: 120 seats
Three parties are currently below the 3.25% electoral threshold: Yoaz Hendel's Reservists-Economic Party (2.7%), Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael (1.7%) and the ultra-Orthodox Charedi Public party (0.2%). Hendel told supporters on election night, "We will not give up," saying results from IDF polling stations would be known by the end of the week.
Likud is the largest party by a wide margin, though down from 32 seats in 2022. Eisenkot's Yashar, running for the first time, is second. Shas is on course to drop from 11 seats to 7. Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism, which ran on a joint list in 2022 and won 14 seats, have 13 combined. The parties of the outgoing coalition won 64 seats in 2022.
The picture has swung back and forth since polls closed yesterday at 10 p.m. (4 p.m. ET). The first exit polls on the three main TV channels gave the Eisenkot-led bloc 52–53 seats to 50 for Netanyahu's bloc. Updated exit polls after midnight showed a 51–51 tie (Kan 11 and Channel 13) or a 52–49 lead for Netanyahu's bloc (Channel 12). As actual ballots were counted overnight, Netanyahu's bloc briefly stood at 63 seats with a quarter of ballot boxes counted, before narrowing.
About 600,000–650,000 “double-envelope ballots” have yet to be counted. They represent votes cast by soldiers, diplomats, hospital patients, displaced residents and others voting away from their home polling stations. The Central Elections Committee expects to finish counting by Thursday, possibly Friday morning. Its chairman, Justice Noam Sohlberg, told President Herzog he expects to submit the official results next Wednesday, November 4.

Record Turnout

Turnout reached 77.7%, the highest since 1999, with 5,695,682 of Israel's 7,331,981 eligible voters casting ballots.
The IDF said turnout among soldiers reached 79.9%, up 6.2% from 2022, with more than 890 polling stations deployed on military bases in Israel and beyond its borders.
Turnout surged in Arab communities. By 8 p.m., 70.1% of eligible voters had cast ballots in Umm al-Fahm, compared with 38.3% in the entire 2022 election. Turnout in Nazareth reached 70% (48.3% in 2022), in Rahat 79.8% (60.6%) and in Sakhnin 83.5% (68.4%).
Before the polls closed, Shas leader Aryeh Deri said, "I am very concerned about the apathy in the Haredi and right-wing strongholds."

Election Night: What the Leaders Said

Speaking to supporters at Likud's election event in Jerusalem shortly after 3 a.m., Netanyahu stopped short of declaring victory: "We are still waiting for the final results, which we will have over the next day or two, God willing." He said, "Likud is the biggest party in Israel. There is no disputing it," and that the right-wing bloc has "a clear, decisive majority" among "the Zionist public." "We must form a strong, national, right-wing government," he said, adding, "It is simply forbidden to endanger Israel and form a government that rests on anti-Zionist Arab parties."
Netanyahu also spoke about Iran: "Iran is weaker than ever, Israel is stronger than ever. And it is within our power, together with our wonderful friend President Trump, to remove this threat once and for all." He thanked his "loyal partners in the coalition."
Gadi Eisenkot, speaking at his party's headquarters in Tel Aviv after initial polls showed his bloc ahead, said, "The public has chosen change. The coalition of failure has lost the people's trust." He pledged to "do everything in my power to form a Zionist government that drafts everyone," committed to "a law of service for all" and to "dismantling Hamas." "After elections with turnout this high, it would be a mistake to go to another election," he said. He called on Netanyahu to step down: "A leader worthy of the name would accept the people's verdict and announce today that he is leaving political life."
Naftali Bennett said, "We will patiently await the actual results, because a great deal can still change. But already, we, the leaders of the bloc seeking change, are talking and coordinating." His B'Yachad partner Yair Lapid said, "The people of Israel have won. We are the majority," adding, "The mission is clear: to form a Zionist government."

Arab Parties

The Joint List (Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad) and Ra'am currently have 18 seats combined, a record. The previous high was 15 seats, won by the Joint List in 2020, when it still included Ra'am. The two parties hold 10 seats in the outgoing Knesset.
Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas told supporters, "We'll translate this electoral power into an influential political force. We're here — not on the sidelines." Ra'am's No. 2, Yoav Segalovitz, is a Jewish former senior police officer and deputy public security minister, an unprecedented choice for the Islamist party. "Brave friend, you made history," Abbas told him.
Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen said his party had "proven that we are a political force that cannot be ignored." The Joint List opposes joining any government, but has signaled it could help replace Netanyahu from outside, for example by abstaining in a confidence vote.
Most opposition parties have said they will not sit with Arab-majority parties. During the campaign, Eisenkot set conditions for an Arab party to join his coalition, including backing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state with a Jewish majority and recognizing Hamas as a terror organization that should be destroyed. He has said neither Arab list meets them.

Paths to a Government

Based on the current count, neither bloc has a clear path to 61 seats. Netanyahu's bloc is seven seats short. The Eisenkot-led bloc, even with Ra'am, would have 54. A minority government would need the outside support or abstention of the Joint List. Liberman has said Yisrael Beytenu will not be part of any minority government.
Eisenkot has ruled out a national unity government with Netanyahu, saying he would "resign the next day" if an emergency government with him were formed. Israeli media reported that people close to President Trump would prefer a unity government without Ben Gvir and Smotrich.
What happens next: The new Knesset is expected to be sworn in on Tuesday, November 10. President Herzog will consult with every party elected to the Knesset and, within seven days of the official results, assign the task of forming a government to a Knesset member. That candidate has 28 days, with possible extensions of up to 14 more. If they fail, Herzog can assign a second candidate for 28 days, after which a majority of 61 MKs can ask him to appoint a specific member. If all of these fail, the Knesset dissolves and a new election is held, with Netanyahu continuing as caretaker prime minister.
In a survey conducted in the week before the vote by the Israel Democracy Institute, 63% of Jewish Israelis and 51% of Arab Israelis said the head of the party that wins the most votes should automatically be appointed prime minister.

The US and the Election

On Sunday, President Trump renewed his endorsement of Netanyahu, attaching the endorsement he posted a week earlier: "When you go to the Polls please remember that Bibi has been an outstanding warrior prime minister! Vote for Bibi Netanyahu for prime minister, we have to finish the job that we started!"
Asked this week whether Trump's backing would affect his choice of who forms the next government, President Herzog said, "I don't think the president of the United States or anybody else can intervene in my discretion. It's Israel's democracy and Israel's constitution, and that's what counts for me." He described the coalition-building process as "really an open game."
This morning,Trump shared a post crediting his endorsement for Netanyahu's showing, which said, "When President Trump endorsed Bibi Netanyahu, the whole tide turned," and that the result "looks like a big come-from-behind stalemate, or even a WIN for Netanyahu." Speaking to reporters after a rally in Texas, he said, "From exit polls, I'm hearing [Netanyahu] was doing very well. I think when the endorsement went out, it had helped him a lot." He said he had not yet spoken with Netanyahu.

Election Day

Casting his ballot in Jerusalem, President Herzog said, "Michal and I are very proud to be here today as millions of Israelis will go to the ballot box to vote and take their fate into their hands in a true, proud, and dignified democracy. This is the story of Israel, an incredible nation going to vote and deciding on our future."
Police arrested a Jerusalem resident in his 20s carrying a knife who approached Democrats’ leader Yair Golan while he was campaigning in a Tel Aviv park. According to the party, a large knife fell from the man's clothing and Golan's security guards subdued him. Police said there had been no attempted stabbing. "Incitement and violence will not deter us," Golan said.
Police arrested three Ra'am activists on suspicion of vote-buying. Ra'am called them "sham arrests that aim to thwart Ra'am and bring down voting in Arab society," saying the activists were arrested at home hours before polls opened.
Several parties complained of missing or defaced ballot slips at polling stations. The Central Elections Committee said it found no evidence of systematic tampering and that individual reports were handled immediately. It rejected a request from Likud and its allies to extend voting hours, saying, "The high national turnout figures in all populations testify to the public's high involvement in the democratic process." Polling stations stayed open after 10 p.m. for voters already in line.
The shekel rose more than 1.2% against the dollar on Election Day, to about NIS 3.04, its strongest level in three weeks, before weakening about 0.7% this morning as the inconclusive result became clear.

Other Developments

US media reported that the US has told several Gulf Arab states to prepare for a short but intense military offensive against Iran after the US midterm elections next Tuesday, and that a Patriot battery is being sent from Texas. The White House declined to comment on "sensitive military plans that may or may not exist," adding, "President Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon." Before the vote, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said Israel's election result "makes no difference to us."
Just after midnight, a knife-wielding minor attacked a police officer guarding Israel's embassy in Belgrade, Serbia, lightly wounding him in the face, before the officer shot and killed him. Serbian Interior Minister Ivica Dacic called it a "terrorist attack," saying the attacker shouted "Allahu Akbar" and supported ISIS.

Jewish Federations

In a statement issued last night, Jewish Federations of North America said, "Today, Israelis turned out in historic numbers to exercise their democratic rights and establish the country's path forward," and congratulated "the people of Israel on a successful Election Day." "As Israelis await final results and the formation of a new government, Jewish Federations look forward to continuing our work with leaders across the political spectrum to strengthen the bonds between Israel and Jewish communities in North America and advance our shared future."

For Further Reading

For more information, please contact: Jewish Federations of North America’s Dani Wassner [email protected]. Subscribe to this weekly update here.